Late-July wrap: Tuesday's inflation number, the August rate call, and the first buyer's-market spring in years

Two dates now sit between the winter market and the spring selling season. On Tuesday 29 July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the June-quarter inflation figures. On 11 August, the Reserve Bank hands down its next cash rate decision — the first since it held at 4.35% in June, and the last before spring listings start building in earnest. What happens between those two dates will shape the market that September sellers and buyers walk into.

Here is where things stand in late July, what the forecasters are saying about the second half, and how to use the five weeks left before the season opens on 1 September.

The rate picture: one number decides August

The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% at its June meeting — a unanimous decision — after lifting it three times this year, in February, March and May. But the Board kept the door explicitly open to going again if inflation stays hot, and the June statement noted it was still prepared to raise the cash rate further if required.

That is why Tuesday's number matters so much. The monthly reading for May had headline inflation at 4.0% and the trimmed mean at 3.6% — both well above the RBA's 2 to 3% target band. The June-quarter release on 29 July is the last major inflation read before the August decision, and the banks are split on what it will produce: CBA, NAB and ANZ all expect the cash rate to hold from here, while Westpac still pencils in one more increase, most likely in August. A survey of economists published by Aussie in early July found 55% expect at least one more hike this year, and of those, most nominate August. Follow the decision on our RBA cash rate tracker.

For borrowers, the practical move is the same whichever way August goes: know your current numbers. Three hikes this year have trimmed borrowing capacity by more than most people realise, so run the borrowing power calculator before you plan around a figure from summer.

The market: soft, stocked, and negotiable

Winter has confirmed the shift that started in autumn. According to Cotality, national home values fell 0.4% in June — the largest monthly fall since December 2022 — and the auction market has now spent almost two months with clearance rates around or below 50%, the weakest sustained stretch since 2018. Vendor discounting has widened to a median 3.6%, and total listings across the capitals are running about 7.7% higher than a year ago.

Two details matter for anyone planning a sale. First, vendors are quietly changing how they sell: auctions' share of new listings has fallen from about 45% late last year to just over 30%, as more sellers opt for private treaty campaigns with room to negotiate. Second, buyers who show up are serious — sales volumes are down about 16% on a year ago, but homes are still selling when the price reflects today's evidence rather than January's. Our guides on auction versus private treaty and what your house is really worth cover both decisions in detail.

What the forecasters see for spring and beyond

Every major bank has trimmed its outlook for the rest of 2026. CBA now expects national prices to be roughly flat across 2026, and its economists estimate the federal tax changes will shave a little under 5% off prices over time as investor demand adjusts. NAB's Housing Monitor sees capital-city prices ending the year about 2% lower, with the weakness concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne. Domain's forecast for the year to June 2027 has Sydney houses falling 3% to 7% and Melbourne 4% to 8%, while Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth keep rising — a reminder that "the market" is really eight different markets. Check your own city's live figures on our capital city market pages.

Consumer expectations have adjusted too: the Westpac–Melbourne Institute house price expectations index fell to a three-year low in July, with fewer than half of consumers now expecting prices to rise — the first time since March 2023. None of this points to a crash; Cotality's own read is a "gradual drift lower" rather than a sharp correction. But it does mean spring 2026 will open as the most buyer-friendly spring since 2019.

Selling this spring: the countdown is on

Spring officially opens in a little over five weeks, and the traditional September–November season rewards sellers who arrive prepared. In a market where buyers have choice, presentation, pricing evidence and agent selection do the heavy lifting — and all three get decided in the weeks before a campaign launches, not during it.

Work backwards from the listing weekend you want: starting the preparation now puts a campaign live in mid-September; starting in late August targets the peak October audience; late September is the last comfortable start for a pre-Christmas result. Our free selling guide now comes with a printable Spring 2026 selling countdown — the 12-week checklist with exact start dates for a September, October or November listing — and the smartest first tick on it is a free appraisal, so every decision that follows rests on today's evidence rather than a hopeful number.

Buying through the shift

For buyers, the leverage is real but not unlimited. Clearance rates near 50% mean pre-auction offers get entertained, price guides are negotiable, and passed-in properties come back to the table. The trade-off: spring will bring more competition as the season's stock and buyers arrive together, and if August delivers a hold — or the first hint of future cuts — sentiment can turn quickly. If you are ready, winter's last weeks are a genuine window; our guide on negotiating a property price covers how to press the advantage without overplaying it.

What it means for you

• Watch 29 July, then 11 August. The June-quarter CPI is the last big input before the RBA's spring-setting decision. CBA, NAB and ANZ expect a hold; Westpac tips one more hike.
• Spring sellers: start now. Preparation fills the five weeks to 1 September quickly. Begin with a free appraisal and the spring countdown checklist in our selling guide.
• Price to the market you are in. Values fell 0.4% nationally in June, discounting is at 3.6%, and listings are up. Evidence-based pricing beats optimism in this market.
• Buyers: use the window. Sub-50% clearance rates mean negotiating room now, with more competition likely once spring stock and any rate relief arrive.
• Everyone: re-run your numbers. Three hikes this year have moved borrowing capacity; the borrowing power calculator takes two minutes.